Greetings:

Employment or lack of employment is the most concern on Oregonian’s minds, however some sectors are seeing job growth such as food processors, transportation, utilities, health services and state government jobs.  Their report goes on to say, “ large job losses occurred in 2009 and continue into 2010 in construction, wood products, private and local governments, educational services and other services.”  Well, now you know why Douglas County continues to have a large unemployment rate, one of the highest in the state of Oregon because most of those job losses are centered here in Douglas County.

None of us were happy about the passage of ballot measures 66 & 67 which led to many states extending an open invitation for businesses to relocate. We are hoping this current special Legislative session will address some of these tax issues to make Oregon more business friendly.  Thus far, the only reason they are in session is because of a projected revenue shortfall which did not happen because of 66 & 67.  They are meeting or not meeting for no apparent reason.  Oh well, that is how government works or doesn’t work. 

Real estate in Douglas County is improving, yes January of this year compared to last January saw closed sales increase by +58.3%,  pending sales grew +21.2%  which is great news. Pending sales are important to us for they normally lead to closed sales in the future.  The average sales price also increased by +1.9% from a year ago  ($153,200-$150,300)  Much of this increase can be attributed to the 1^st time buyers’ home credit of $8000 and the $6500 credit for existing home owners.  That part of the stimulus package is working well in our economy.  There is a 19.4 month supply of inventory on market which is down from 30.3 month supply in January a year ago, another good indicator that the market is improving.

Vacancy rates in residential, commercial and industrial properties continue to rise.  In residential vacancy rates of 9-11% are common and in the commercial- industrial market at 18-20%.  Many of the rates are readjusting downward with some offering free 1 month rent for those that sign a contract for a least 12 months.  We are also seeing owners paying for tenant improvements and either absorbing all the costs or sharing those costs with the tenants.   We are in, and will continue for sometime to come, a buyers’ and tenants’ market where they are dictating the prices and the terms.  We are seeing signs of some improvement and as spring and summer arrive, which historically our markets improve, we hope this trend continues upward.  I told someone the other day I really don’t have to give up anything for Lent, I am already sacrificing.

Haven’t these Winter Olympics been exciting to watch.  Just to see all those smiles on the young athlete’s faces and the records that they are setting has been wonderful.  I really enjoy seeing these athletes that train so hard accomplish these amazing feats. Please keep all our military and their families in your thoughts and prayers as our two wars continue.

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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

Is there any other business going on in Washington D.C. beside National Health Care Reform?  All of us know our elected officials are spending an ornate amount of time on this issue which boils down to nothing more the Health Insurance Reform.  We have to ask the question, “Why don’t they put the petty politics behind them and move onward?” As they say, a camel is an animal that went into a committee as a horse and after the committee finished it came out as a two humped back camel.

The National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun declared that the sudden upward spike in home sales for October and November surprised us all!  Driven by first-time buyer tax credit, existing home sales for October rose a whopping 10.1% to a seasonally annual adjusted rate of 6.10 million units.  We are now 23.5% above the same time last year which is good news for the housing and real estate industry.  Sales activity nation wide is at the highest pace since February 2007 when it reached an annual 6.55 million.

As many of you know, the tax credit has been extended and expanded until April 2010.  This extension and with a 4.95% interest rate for a 30 year conventional fixed rate mortgage at an all time low,  I expect the upward climb in home sales to continue.  Also, the President is putting renewed pressure on lenders to lend money to small businesses and exiting and potential homeowners. 

Sales activity in Douglas County has been a mixed bag.  Closed sales increased 16.9% and pending sales rose 15% for the fourth strait month when comparing November 2009 with November 2008.  This is good news for us and all our sellers and buyers. However, when we compare November 2009 with October 2009, closed sales declined 3.8%, pending sales were down 23.3% and new listings were down 31.8%.  At this month’s rate of sales, we have over 15 months of inventory of listings for sale. 

The average sales price for November 2009 was down -6% compared to November 2008 ($166,300 v. $176,900).   Also, the average sales price for 2009 year to date is down

-15.6% ($159,200 v. $188,700).  This lowering of sales price is consistent with what we have been seeing all year.  In other words, sellers have to lower their prices to get their properties sold in this type of market or attempt to wait this downward trend out.  New listings for the month of November dropped by -13.5%, so you can see many sellers are deciding to rent their properties or wait.  As we all know, the brutal truth for a seller is understand the current conditions of the real estate market and respond to accordingly.

 Again, I want to wish you, your family and your loved ones a very Merry Christmas and many more blessings in 2010.  You deserve it for you have earned it!  Keep all the Military service people in your thoughts and prayers during this special time of the year.

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Greetings:                                           

October was Century 21 National Open House Month which our company participated in. We hosted 81 “Open Houses” last month we had over 150 leads and conducted a home buyers fair.  I was very pleased with our turn out and thank you again for allowing us to host your home.  As you can see, people still want to buy. 

October sales activity was up compared to October of last year in Douglas County. Closed sales increased by 14.5% compared to last year, while pending sales rose 13.9% which is a good sign.  However, our year to date closed sales are down by -7.6%. Interest rates still remain low at the 4.75-5.75% level. Also, many of our sellers are helping with buyers’ closing costs. You have probably already read or heard that the $8000 tax credit for first time homebuyers has been extended until June 30^th of 2010.  Also, a new tax credit of $6500 was enacted which will apply to all of us that make less than $225,000 for married couples and $125,000 for singles. Another requirement is that you must have lived in your residence at least 5 out of the last 8 years. That should help to keep the momentum going in the marketplace.

The average sales price for October 2009 was down -25% compared to last year ($189,600 v $151,000).  However, if you compare the month to month sales activity, the average sales price is up 2.4% ($151,000 v. $147,500).  We are seeing a slight increase in average sales price which is encouraging.  Any upward movement is welcomed in this sales environment.  The National Association of Realtors chief economist is still very cautious about the housing market.  “Most of the wealth today for most families came from the equity they had in their homes which they used  to purchase other consumer goods,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR economist.  However, since that equity is disappearing they can’t afford to go out and buy other goods and services. He goes on to report that sales activity nationwide is at the highest level in over 2 years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.

In Douglas County new listings fell -2.7% so we now have a 14.9 months supply of properties to sell, down from 30.3 months in January of 2009.  That is good news, either seller’s are deciding to rent their properties or they are taking them off the market waiting for things to improve. 

Douglas County continues to suffer in terms of unemployment.  We are now at close to 14% the third highest in the state of Oregon.  Foreclosures mount in times like this and according to Realty Trac, who tracks foreclosures in Douglas County, there were 240 homes repossessed in Douglas County since the first of this year.  As we all know, job creation and job growth is the key to our economy, so encourage employers to hire when they can and buy locally so they can hire additional people. We all have to pull together in order to get through these very difficult times.

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Greetings:

WOW!  Did the stock market zoom up this past month?  Yes, over the 10,000+ benchmark.  Is the recovery on its way, many investors think so.  However, as one analyst said, “the Dow was over 10,000 in 1999, so we really haven’t gone anywhere in 10 years.”  Oh well, I think that many people are feeling better about the economy and that is what it takes.  Perception is 90% of confidence as they say, so if people perceive that they are doing better, then they are.  Funny how that works!  Our nation’s unemployment rate is down compared to earlier with fewer people signing up for unemployment benefits. Oregon’s jobless rate dropped and so did Douglas County’s so it appears that some of our key indicators are showing signs of improvement. 

In Douglas County our residential sales activity also benefited by how people feel for pending sales were up 20% compared to last year which is a good indication of where our market is headed, for pending sales lead to closed sales. Obviously, the $8000 tax credit for first time homebuyers and low interest rates have helped considerably. However, closed sales were down compared to the same time last year by -3.6%  Our year to date closed sales are down as well by -9.8%   

The average sales price for September 2009 was down -17.8% compared to last year which is what we have been advising our sellers repeatedly.  In fact, I advise my sellers to take a look at the comparable sales in their neighborhood and price their home 15-20% below the competition and they will more than likely generate an offer sooner than if they price it with the competition.  As you compare the month to month sales activity, the average sales price is down -24.7% ($147,500 v. $195,900). 

New listings fell -13.6% so we now have a 15.3 months supply of properties to sell which is down by -50% compared to January of 2009.  That is good news, either sellers are deciding to rent their properties or they are taking them off the market waiting for things to improve. 

I am often asked, has the real estate market in Douglas County hit bottom?  No, it has not in my opinion.  There are 3 key reasons, 1-over supply; 2-lack of qualified buyers; 3-concerns about the local economy.  I think that we may see a slight up tick in the local economy in the Spring of 2010 and full recovery in 2012.  What do I mean by full recovery, unemployment under 10% in Douglas County.  As we all know, job creation and job growth is the key to our economy, so encourage employers to hire when they can and buy locally so they can hire additional people to keep up with demand. 

 I wish you have the best “Halloween” ever and treat the children to your warm “smile” and some treats.    

                                                           Happy Neewollah !

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For the first time in five years, existing home sales nationwide have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors. Existing home sales rose 7.2% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June and are 5.0% above the 4.99 million unit pace in July 2008. The last time this occurred was in 2004. “The housing market has turned for the better with first time home buyers taking advantage of the $8,000 tax credit and the affordability index rising,” according to Mr. Yun, Chief Economist from NAR. Nationally, first time home buyers accounted for over 30% of the sales, and distressed homes accounting for 31%. According to Freddie Mac, the average interest rate fell to 5.22% on a 30 year conventional mortgage with 20% or greater down.

Sales activity in Douglas County was mixed compared to last August as closed sales grew by 2.9%. However pending sales dropped 3.2% and new listings increased by 6.5%. Comparing August 2009 with July 2009, closed sales dropped 11.3% (71 v. 80). Pending sales declined 10% (90 v. 100). New listings also fell 9.4%(231 v. 235). At this month’s rate of sales the 1,287 active residential listings would last approximately 18.1 months. This rate is up from last month by nearly 3 months. (18.1 v. 15.8) but down from 20.3 months of inventory in August 2008.

The average sales price for August 2009 was up 7.5% compared to August 2008. ($195,900 v. $190,200). However, the average sales price year to date is down 16.0% ($159,000 v. $190,200). Many sellers are adjusting their prices downward to meet the market and some decreasing their asking prices by over 25%. My recommendation is for sellers to price their home 10-12% below the average sales price in their area and they will stand a better chance of generating an offer on their property. It appears that our local economy is still sliding downward. We are not noticing any signs of improvement either. As you know, all the credit markets are operating more cautiously which they should be. Many consumers that have money are sitting on the sidelines waiting for the costs of goods and services to drop even more. The unemployment rate in Douglas County of 18+% is the second highest in the state. For many, unemployment benefits are running out soon, so we are headed for a tough winter. We need to encourage many of our local businesses to hire employees and encourage those that are seeking work to return to school for further training. If you choose to buy, please buy locally, it helps us all. I wish you all the best and thank you for doing business with our firm.

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Greetings! Real estate activity nationwide and in Douglas County continues to show signs of improvement. The Pending Homes Sales Index rose for the 4th straight month which is good news because pending sales lead to closed sales. Favorable housing affordability and the first time buyer tax credit is boosting activity according to the National Association of Realtors.  The National Home Builders Association reports that builders’ confidence continues to grow and they feel that it will continue through at least the summer months. To date they reported that only about $90 billion of the $789 billion stimulus package or 11% has went into the economy and by the end of the year some $250 billion should be injected to help further stimulate the economy.

In Douglas County our residential market continues to improve. When you compare June 2009 with May 2009, closed sales increased 11%, pending sales rose by 1.1% with new listings growing by 5.8%. That means that some of the pending inventory is starting to sell in fact we have 15.4 months of inventory remaining on the market which is down from over 30 months in January. The average sales price is down for June 2009 compared to June 2008 by some 19.8%. Since the first of the year the average sales price has dropped by 20.2% to $152,400 vs. $190,900 in 2008.

Our local economy continues to suffer because of the many families that are out of work. Our unemployment rate continues to hover around the 18% level even with the seasonal adjustable rate which normally brings the rate down. Most of our local retailers are suffering with sales of goods down significantly compared  to last year. This past legislative session was a big disappointment for us all with very little accomplished. I talked with one of our State Representatives and all he could say to me, “this was a most interesting experience.” Not much substantive out of our leaders in Salem. Sad, so sad! Keep a strong upper lip and keep working and encourage employers to hire so our economy improves!

Regards,

Neil

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Good news for Real Estate in Roseburg, Oregon. The US Department of Agriculture announced this week that homes inside Roseburg city limits will now qualify for its Rural Development Loan Program. What that means is that buyers who make less than $96,000 for a family of four will now be able to qualify for a loan with no money down. This could spur growth in a program that last year provided over $136 million and benefited over 950 family statewide, said Rod Hansen, the USDA’s housing programs director for Oregon.

Another sign of improvement is that the Pending Homes Sales index rose for the third straight month which is good news because pending sales lead to closed sales. Record low mortgage interest rates, first time home buyer tax credits and lower priced homes led to this trend. According to the National Home Builders Association, housing starts nationwide improved dramatically and appear to be moving toward the adjusted annual rate of 532,000 new starts. This trend has been improving for the last 3 months as well.

In Douglas County our residential market continues to improve. When you compare May 2009 with April 2009, closed sales increased 15.9%, pending sales rose by 7.2% with new listings falling by 15.9%. That means that some of the pending inventory is starting to sell. In fact, we have 16.7 months of inventory remaining on the market which is down from over 30 months in January 2009. Even though the average sales price is down for May 2009 compared to May 2008 by some 29% it has increased over last month’s sales price by 10.2% ($162,300 vs. $147,300).

I am encouraged by our recent statistics and feel that we should see signs of improvement thorugh the summer months. As you know, Douglas County continues to suffer with one of the highest unemployment rates in the state at 18+%. Many of our families are living off their unemployment benefits which continue to support many of our local businesses but those benefits won’t last forever. We need jobs! Encourage business owners to hire more employees to help us sustain a healthy economy.

admin Market News

Greetings!

Enclosed for your review and information is the April report of the real estate activity in Douglas County for residential properties. Housing prices nationwide are still on the decline and are adjusting to the mid 1990’s price range. Price stablization, with its positive implications for reducing foreclosures, will be a critical factor in the reduction of unsold inventories according to the National Home Builders economists. They go onto say the fundamental demand factors, as opposed to excess demand, will be the key factor in returning the housing market to its balance. However, it is still uncertain when that will occur. Their best estimate is to see positive numbers in 2012 and not until 2017 will it return to the 1.5-2.0 million housing start levels we saw in 2005.

In Douglas County, when you compare April 2009 to March 2009 pending sales grew by some 6.4% and over 18% since the first of the year. It is important to note that pending sales are headed in a positive direction which will lead to more closed sales. We did see a raise of 14.6% in closed sales as well. I welcomed the good news and I am hopeful that this trend will continue.

The average number of days on the market has dropped by 20 days to 168 days or 5+ months. The average sales price in April increased by 18.6% to $147,300 v. $124,200 in March 2009. This is the first positive sign we have in all of 2009. With interest rates at an all time low, a large inventory for buyers to pick from and a first time buyers’ tax credit of $8,000 we are seeing increased sales. Also, our inventory of existing homes is down to 18.9 months which is a drop from 30.3 months in January of 2009. I am encouraged by these numbers because it means that we are gaining positive momentum for the summer months.

There is no question that our economy continues to be weak but there are some positive signs as well. Retail spending in Douglas County is still sluggish but people are spending money on necessities, just go into a grocery store and you have to wait in line to check out. It appears that COSTCO is about to break ground, which we all welcome, for it will add jobs as well as more purchasing options.

Neil

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Greetings Everyone!

Real estates sales continue to climb upward nationwide which is a positive sign. In fact, construction of new homes nationwide has also seen an increase according to the National Home Builders Association. In Douglas County the Planning and Building Departments report an increase in applications and permits. Even though these increases are only slight we are optimistic that they will continue for spring and summer which normally are our best months in the real estate business.

In Douglas County, new listings decreased by 13.4%, closed sales decreased by 23.9% and pending sales decreased by 9.6% during the the same period. However, comparing March 2009 to February 2009 pending sales grew by some 2.6% and over 12% since the first of the year. Closed sales decreased by 6.8%. It is important to note that pending sales are headed in a positive direction which will lead to more closed sales. We are still seeing sellers that need to sell drop their prices an average of 32.0% in order to get their properties sold. In other words, they are lowering their prices to match the market.

The average number of days on the market is up to 188 days or 6+ months which indicates a downturn in our area as far as values of real estate. We have over 20.9 months of listings for sale right now which is down from 30.3 months in January 2009. This is a positive note. In other words, if we did not list another property it would take over 20 months to sell all of our properties.

It appears that this would be a very good time to buy real estate and it is. With interest rates hovering around 5%, loan fees often paid for by the sellers and the stock market ever changing, investors and homebuyers should be putting their money into real estate. But they are not! Our economy is weak and with unemployment over 18% and rising in Douglas County, people are scared. The only way to recovery is jobs and we need to ask our local employers to hire people when they can for it is vital now more than ever.

Regards, Neil

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I have reviewed the February RMLS Market Action for residential property in Douglas County, Oregon. We received some good news today! Real estate sales were up 5% since the first of the year! However, lending is becoming more complicated. They are overly cautions on what they are lending on and who they are lending to. It is becoming frustrating to say the least but I fully understand their predicament as well in light of all the foreclosures nationwide. Until those properties are sold and off the books, we have not truly hit bottom yet. Foreclosure sales in Douglas County amount to about 3% of total sales.

In Douglas County, new listings decreased by 12.7%, closed sales decreased by 29.2% and pending sales decreased by 17.2%. However, comparing February 2009 to January 2009, pending sales grew by some 9.1% and closed sales rose by 27.7%. This indicator is postive and it is showing the market is improving slightly. The hard truth however is that all of our sellers who need to sell have to adjust their prices downward to meet the market. In fact, our market data shows us that the sellers who reduced their prices on the average of 32.7% were able to sell their properties in January and February. Sellers are having a hard time swallowing the downward trends of the real estate market because we have had a 10 year climb in real estate prices and we are now back to 2000-2001 prices.

It is taking over 5 months to sell a property at 165 days on the market. The average sales price in February jumped by 22.8% to $184,500 v $150,300 in January 2009. This is another postitive indicator tht the market is improving. Furthermore, we have over 24.4 months of listings for sale right now which is down from 30.3 months in January 2009. Historically, spring and summer are our busiest months in real estate sales so I am looking forward to more sales in the next 6 months.

It appears that the stimulus package has been allocated to the lending institutions. Now the rules and regulations are being written about how the money will be spent. We can only wait and watch right now before we all know what is in store for the buyers and sellers out there. My advice is to plant a summer garden with lots of vegetables that you enjoy eating. It may be a wise investment.

Regards, Neil

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