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Douglas County Real Estate Analysis April 2010

May 27th, 2010

Greetings:

The Oregon primary is over and I hope that you voted for more winners than losers. We, in Douglas County, are fortunate to have a good variety of capable candidates to choose from and I am glad that these citizens step up and seek their respective offices of choice.

It appears that this fall’s elections will center on the governor’s race with former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber and Republican Chris Dudley. We do have a choice and it is up to us to vote for the person who will lead Oregon for the next 4 years.

We also celebrated our 5th Annual Golden Apple Awards and Reception for our Douglas County teachers where we honored over 30 deserving teachers from 4 districts. We really enjoy hosting this event and it has grown in size over the years with over 200 family and friends paying tribute to these teachers for their many accomplishments and achievements. We have now honored over 150 deserving teachers from our community. Many of us can attest to a teacher who played an important role in our life and helped us become the person we are today. My highest respect and appreciation goes out to all teachers for what they do to motivate and inspire our students to reach their dreams. They truly are helping our county’s most precious resource, “our children, who are tomorrow’s leaders.”

Closed sales in April grew + 2.5% when comparing to March 2010. The pending sales grew as well by +18.8% and new listings were down -6.8%. However, at this sales pace, the 1232 active listings would last approximately 15 months which is up from March 2010 (14.8 months). This month’s results show that the sale price took a downward turn when the average sales price decreased by -13.3% compared to April 2009. However, the average sales price dropped even more dramatically in April 2010 compared to March 2010. In just one month the price went down -23.3% which is one of the largest decreases we have seen ($127,700v $167,000). More and more of our sellers are adjusting their prices downward in order to match or beat the market, so that they can get their properties sold.

I believe that we have not seen the real estate market bottom out in Douglas County. We continue to have more sellers than buyers. As we all remember from Economics’ 101 class, when the supply out paces the demand, prices fall. Real Estate is no different than other commodities and is susceptible to the same trends in the market place. How long will this trend continue? In my opinion, until we get our arms around the high unemployment situation and get people back to work, it could be a long, long time.

Please remember all of our fallen veterans and their families this Memorial Day and give thanks to our current military servicemen and women, for they truly are our hero’s. Remember, those in our military past and present that have protected our freedoms so that we, our families and loved ones, can live free today.

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Douglas County Real Estate Market Analysis for February 2010

February 19th, 2010

Greetings:

Employment or lack of employment is the most concern on Oregonian’s minds, however some sectors are seeing job growth such as food processors, transportation, utilities, health services and state government jobs.  Their report goes on to say, “ large job losses occurred in 2009 and continue into 2010 in construction, wood products, private and local governments, educational services and other services.”  Well, now you know why Douglas County continues to have a large unemployment rate, one of the highest in the state of Oregon because most of those job losses are centered here in Douglas County.

None of us were happy about the passage of ballot measures 66 & 67 which led to many states extending an open invitation for businesses to relocate. We are hoping this current special Legislative session will address some of these tax issues to make Oregon more business friendly.  Thus far, the only reason they are in session is because of a projected revenue shortfall which did not happen because of 66 & 67.  They are meeting or not meeting for no apparent reason.  Oh well, that is how government works or doesn’t work. 

Real estate in Douglas County is improving, yes January of this year compared to last January saw closed sales increase by +58.3%,  pending sales grew +21.2%  which is great news. Pending sales are important to us for they normally lead to closed sales in the future.  The average sales price also increased by +1.9% from a year ago  ($153,200-$150,300)  Much of this increase can be attributed to the 1st time buyers’ home credit of $8000 and the $6500 credit for existing home owners.  That part of the stimulus package is working well in our economy.  There is a 19.4 month supply of inventory on market which is down from 30.3 month supply in January a year ago, another good indicator that the market is improving.

Vacancy rates in residential, commercial and industrial properties continue to rise.  In residential vacancy rates of 9-11% are common and in the commercial- industrial market at 18-20%.  Many of the rates are readjusting downward with some offering free 1 month rent for those that sign a contract for a least 12 months.  We are also seeing owners paying for tenant improvements and either absorbing all the costs or sharing those costs with the tenants.   We are in, and will continue for sometime to come, a buyers’ and tenants’ market where they are dictating the prices and the terms.  We are seeing signs of some improvement and as spring and summer arrive, which historically our markets improve, we hope this trend continues upward.  I told someone the other day I really don’t have to give up anything for Lent, I am already sacrificing.

Haven’t these Winter Olympics been exciting to watch.  Just to see all those smiles on the young athlete’s faces and the records that they are setting has been wonderful.  I really enjoy seeing these athletes that train so hard accomplish these amazing feats. Please keep all our military and their families in your thoughts and prayers as our two wars continue.

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