Greetings:

WOW!  Did the stock market zoom up this past month?  Yes, over the 10,000+ benchmark.  Is the recovery on its way, many investors think so.  However, as one analyst said, “the Dow was over 10,000 in 1999, so we really haven’t gone anywhere in 10 years.”  Oh well, I think that many people are feeling better about the economy and that is what it takes.  Perception is 90% of confidence as they say, so if people perceive that they are doing better, then they are.  Funny how that works!  Our nation’s unemployment rate is down compared to earlier with fewer people signing up for unemployment benefits. Oregon’s jobless rate dropped and so did Douglas County’s so it appears that some of our key indicators are showing signs of improvement. 

In Douglas County our residential sales activity also benefited by how people feel for pending sales were up 20% compared to last year which is a good indication of where our market is headed, for pending sales lead to closed sales. Obviously, the $8000 tax credit for first time homebuyers and low interest rates have helped considerably. However, closed sales were down compared to the same time last year by -3.6%  Our year to date closed sales are down as well by -9.8%   

The average sales price for September 2009 was down -17.8% compared to last year which is what we have been advising our sellers repeatedly.  In fact, I advise my sellers to take a look at the comparable sales in their neighborhood and price their home 15-20% below the competition and they will more than likely generate an offer sooner than if they price it with the competition.  As you compare the month to month sales activity, the average sales price is down -24.7% ($147,500 v. $195,900). 

New listings fell -13.6% so we now have a 15.3 months supply of properties to sell which is down by -50% compared to January of 2009.  That is good news, either sellers are deciding to rent their properties or they are taking them off the market waiting for things to improve. 

I am often asked, has the real estate market in Douglas County hit bottom?  No, it has not in my opinion.  There are 3 key reasons, 1-over supply; 2-lack of qualified buyers; 3-concerns about the local economy.  I think that we may see a slight up tick in the local economy in the Spring of 2010 and full recovery in 2012.  What do I mean by full recovery, unemployment under 10% in Douglas County.  As we all know, job creation and job growth is the key to our economy, so encourage employers to hire when they can and buy locally so they can hire additional people to keep up with demand. 

 I wish you have the best “Halloween” ever and treat the children to your warm “smile” and some treats.    

                                                           Happy Neewollah !

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