Greetings:
HOUSING MARKET PREDICTIONS FOR 2023: WILL HOME PRICES DROP?
The simple answer is NO!
Even though the real estate market is in a correction phase right now with higher mortgage rates, the median home prices nationwide continue to climb by +3.5% to $370,000 (Comparing 2021/2022). According to the National Association of Realtors, this is the 129th consecutive month of increasing home prices. Many housing economists say, “This is simply a reflection of supply and demand because inventory continues to be tight!” Even though nationwide existing home prices are up, existing homes sales have dropped -35.0% from a year ago. There are not enough homes to sell, and builders are still playing catch up. Nationally, we lack around 5+ million housing units and in Oregon more than 100,000 homes are needed.
During her swearing in ceremony in Salem, Governor Tina Kotek said, “My first executive order will set a housing construction target of 36,000 new homes per year, which is an 80% increase over recent construction trends!” This measure comes on the heels of a significant spending package passed by the Oregon lawmakers last year, which includes $400 million to address homelessness and housing. This will be helpful to all of us, especially in Douglas County. I am hopeful that all facets of our County and City governments cooperate with the state and take advantage of the funding made available to make this happen. We are reaching the point where the average Douglas County consumer who wants to buy a home cannot because our local wages do not keep up with prices of homes.
Comparing December 2022 with December 2021, the average sales price has increased from $345,400 to $362,200 or (+4.9%). Our year-to-date sales prices increased over last year by (+11.7%) from $321,500 to $359,200. It appears that we mirror the national trend of increasing sales prices.
THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IN OUR AREA CONTINUES TO REMAIN STRONG, EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF IT WEAKENING. IF YOU WANT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR CONINTUED POSTIVE APPRECIATION RATE, GIVE US A CALL SO WE CAN HELP YOU NOW!
Our area continues to trend with the national real estate market. New listings are down (-8.3%) year-to-date from 2,241 in 2021 to 2054 in 2022. Currently, there is a 4.0-month supply of listings on the market to sell, which is up from January when it was 1.5 months. In other words, if we did not take another listing it would take us some 4 months to sell our current inventory.
Closed sales decreased in December of this year to 86 compared to December 2021 at 146 or (-41.1%). Year-to-date closed sales also decreased in 2021 with 1,806 compared to 1,536 in 2022 or (-15.0%).
Please keep all the men and women that are serving in the military, health care workers, and our first responders along with their families in your thoughts and prayers. Their service and sacrifice keep us safe and free.
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