Greetings:
According to Laurance Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors, “Inflation refuses to budge! ... In September, consumer prices rose 8.2%. Rents rose by 7.2%, the highest in 40 years.” Rent increases are expected to continue because housing starts did not stay up with population growth. Yun says, “The consequences are evident in rent growth and higher home prices.” Even with an economic recession, the Federal Reserve is likely to raise the interest rates. This will force many buyers out of the market, causing it to slow even more.
The real estate market in Douglas County continues to change because of the increasing interest rates. It is now predicted that interest rates may go as high as 7% before years end. Many first-time home buyers and buyers who are upgrading are facing affordability challenges when our local wages do not keep up with the cost of a mortgage. Many people will continue to rent and those that wanted or thought about selling are staying put.
New listings in September of (171) decreased -10.9% from (192) listed in September 2021. This is also a decrease from the previous month of -3.4% (177) in August 2022. Many of the houses are staying on the market longer with our inventory at 2.9 months. This is the most inventory since May 2020 when it was 3.2 months. More inventory is good news for buyers because there will be more to choose from. Another trend that is occurring is the amount of price changes to initial list prices. We see about 20 price reductions per day, which is an indication that listing prices are coming down to meet current market prices. Sellers are realizing that they need to adjust their prices to get a sale. This is another significant sign of us moving towards a buyers’ market.
Despite the slowing market, our year-to-date average sales price of $359,000 continues to increase at (+14.3%) compared to 2021 at $314,100. Another positive trend is the average sales price for the month of September is up by (+6.2%) to $353,700 from August 2022 when it was $333,100.
Pending sales this month of (121) decreased -35.3% from the (187) offers accepted in September 2021. That trend continued with our pending sales decreasing by -21.4% from last month at (154). Also, our year-to-date pending sales decreased by -15.3% from (1,440) in 2021 to (1,220) in 2022. We followed pending sales because it is a good indicator of what our market will look like in the next 20-45 days.
Closed sales were down -2.3% in September at (130) compared to last month at (133). Our closed sales continue to decrease year-to-date as well, -5.7% from (1,308) in 2021 to (1,234) in 2022. This is another indicator of how rising interest rates affect the real estate market slowing down.
The Winston-Dillard area saw a change in value of (+17.6% ) with an average sales price of $345,400; the Glide area’s change in value was (+36.1) to $631,800; Myrtle Creek and southern Douglas County decreased (-1.7%) to $275,900; Melrose and west Roseburg’s average change in value was (+7.8%) or $399,500; SE Roseburg’s average sales price was $309,000 or (+16.1%); North Douglas County and Drain’s average sales price was $345,100 or (+11.8%); Hucrest and the Garden Valley area average change in value was (13.2%) or $498,500; and Green to (+23.9%) or $315,000.
I wanted to remind everyone to vote by November 8th. You can vote by mail or go to the courthouse and vote in person. It’s a very important mid-year election and there are many issues and candidates that need our votes. Participation is not only important, but many veterans have fought for our right to vote. “OUR FREEDOMS ARE NOT FREE AND DON’T TAKE YOUR FREEDOMS FOR GRANTED.” Please, keep all our service men and women and their families in our thoughts and prayers. Also, thank them for their service and sacrifices that keep us free.
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